My (very!) unscientific prediction: Al Gore will be the 43rd President of the United States.....


Last modified: Fri Nov 10 09:25:00 2000

Latest update on recount:

News Channel 2000 (Palm Beach TV): BUSH ahead by 327 votes with only overseas absentee ballots left

Also from NC2K: A circuit judge ruled that the county's recount cannot be certified until after a state hearing next week.

From the NYTimes, on what would happen if Florida's election is still disputed by Dec. 18:

If the legal issues in Florida have not been resolved by Dec. 18, a judge could conceivably grant an order restraining Gov. Jeb Bush, George W. Bush's younger brother, from issuing what is known as a Certificate of Ascertainment, identifying which slate of electors won on Nov. 7 - Republican or Democrat. Without that certificate, no Florida electors could vote in the electoral college ballot which takes place that day. As things now stand, that would mean Mr. Gore would win.

The 12th Amendment to the Constitution provides that a president is elected by ``a majority of the whole number of electors appointed'' - not an absolute majority of the 538 who are named in normal circumstances.

From the Boston Globe:

The Florida Highway Patrol found itself answering questions after troopers set up checkpoints near a polling area outside Tallahassee in an area with many black voters.

Troopers said they failed to get approval for the location or to publicize it in advance, but did not intend to scare away voters.

The checkpoint was 2.1 miles from a polling place at a church in Woodville, in Leon County. Troopers checked driver licenses and equipment between 10 a.m. and 11:30 a.m. on Election Day.

"The basic thing is, our troopers were out there working," Highway Patrol Spokesman Maj. Ken Howes said. "The sergeant had the initiative. I find it hard to criticize him other than failing to file some administrative guidelines, but we're correcting that."

And:

Adora Obi Nweze, president of the NAACP in Florida, offered her own horror story.

Nweze said officials in her Miami precinct tried to deny her a ballot because she had been sent an absentee ballot earlier. The civil rights leader said she never received the mailing and demanded to vote.

"You can take me to jail or let me vote," she said she told county officials.

She eventually was allowed to sign an affidavit swearing she had not previously voted.

A good source for early reports: Orvetti.com

Amazing figures from Volusia county, thanks to Carrie Cihak....

Constitutional expert Michael Gerhardt answers questions

Gore edges ahead of Bush in ongoing Oregon count

Latest spin from the campaign that says we George W. Bush will bring honor, character and integrity to the White House:

Campaign spokesman Ari Fleischer issued a statement that called Palm Beach County "a Pat Buchanan stronghold" and criticized Gore for making an issue of "these routine and predictable events."

On this topic, ABC News reports:

In an afternoon press release and news conference, campaign officials called Palm Beach county a "stronghold" of Pat Buchanan. They made this claim, according to the release, based on the fact that "16,695 voters in Palm Beach County are registered to the Independent Party, the Reform Party, or the American Reform Party."

An analysis by ABCNEWS, however, shows that the Reform Party, for whom Buchanan is running, accounts for only 337 of the 16,695 registered voters for the three parties.

The Independent party has 16,336 registered voters in Palm Beach and the American Reform Party 22. The Independent Party claims no connection whatsoever to Buchanan or the Reform Party, though a party official says it's possible some members might have voted for him.

When confronted with the facts above, Bush campaign spokesman Ari Fleischer told ABCNEWS the distinction between the Reform Party and Independent Party didn't matter. Pat Buchanan ran as an independent (small "i"), so people in the Independent Party might be more inclined to vote for him, he suggested.

When asked to provide proof there was a connection between the party and Buchanan, or whether Buchanan ever campaigned for Independent Party members, he said, "the press release speaks for itself."

Former Sec of St James Baker says "we haven't heard one gripe about that ballot until after the voting took place". But people were complaining throughout the day....

Baker also claims that the ballot, which was approved by the democratic county election supervisor, was perfectly legal.

Link to Title IX, Chapter 101: Florida Elections Statute Page

Link to Chapter 101.011 ("Voting by Paper Ballot")

Link to Chapter 101.151 ("Specifications for General Election Ballot")

But that does not appear to be true: paragraph (1) of Title IX, Chapter 101 of Florida Law (about ballots, taken from link above) clearly states that the ballot has to have names to the left of the place where voters mark the ballot.

Also, paragraph (4) of Title IX, Chapter 151 of Florida Law (about the form of the gneral election ballot taken from link above) clearly states:

The names of the candidates of the party which received the highest number of votes for Governor in the last election in which a Governor was elected shall be placed first under the heading for each office, together with an appropriate abbreviation of party name; the names of the candidates of the party which received the second highest vote for Governor shall be second under the heading for each office, together with an appropriate abbreviation of the party name.

Link to real time results from Flordia state dept (usually too busy)

Pinellas county has reported its new new total, giving Gore a net gain of 468 votes. Go to St. Petersburg Times for county-by-county totals. MSNBC writes that:

"Florida's Pinellas County launched a second recount of votes Thursday after a first recount produced a swing of more than 400 votes to Gore. The large swing, which would reduce Bush's lead to some 500 votes, was due in part to around 400 ballots that workers failed to count on election night."

List of cities holding rallies

More stuff forwarded to me by my buddy Geoff around 12pm Thurs Nov 9

News services report that Buchanan says Gore is the rightful winner in Florida, and insists votes Buchanan received in Palm Beach County are rightfully Gore's.

Text file with all initial Florida returns and layout file.

Older news: Before the recount, Bush was leading Gore by 1,784 votes. With the latest recount total, Bush now unofficially leads Gore by 790 votes.

Gore gains net of 351 votes with 27 of 67 counties done. Pinellas county has to redo recount (!), because they missed some the first (i.e. second) time.... Differential now 1,433...

Also from the same article:

Gore carried the county by more than 110,000 votes, but the 3,407 votes for Buchanan were by far the most of any Florida county, and almost 20 percent of Buchanan's total vote in the state. Later Thursday it was discovered that more than 19,000 ballots cast in Palm Beach County had more than one vote for president, causing them to be nullified. Only 3,783 ballots cast in the U.S. Senate race had the same mistake, according to unofficial returns.

And:

"The ballot was laid out within accordance with the statute," said state elections director Clay Roberts, a Republican appointee. "That's a voting system that's been in use for many years in many counties."

Volusia County problems???

Title IX, Chapter 101 of Florida Law (on ballots)

Stuff forwarded to me by my buddy Geoff around 4pm Wed Nov 8