capture log close
log using election, replace
prog drop _all
infile using fl-county.dct, clear
tab county
gen n = gore + bush + bucha + nader
gen shgore = gore/n
gen shbush = bush/n
gen shbuch = bucha/n
*gen lngore = ln(gore)
*gen lnbuch = ln(buchanan)
*gen lnbush = ln(bush)
*gen lnshgore = lngore - ln(n)
*gen lnshbuch = lnbuch - ln(n)
*gen lnshbush = lnbush - ln(n)


list if county == "PALMBEACH"

*buch vs. n
*reg buch n
*predict hat1
*generate dev1 = buch - hat1
*generate pdev1 = dev1/hat1
*list county buch hat1 dev1 pdev1
list county buch
! /bin/rm buch-n.gph buch-n.ps buch-n.eps
graph buch n, c(.) s([county]) sort saving(buch-n)
gphpen buch-n -dps -n
!gs -sDEVICE=epswrite -sOutputFile=buch-n.eps -dBATCH -dNOPAUSE buch-n.ps


*bush vs. n
*reg bush n
*predict hat2
*generate dev2 = bush - hat2
*generate pdev2 = dev2/hat2
*list county bush hat2 dev2 pdev2
list county bush
! /bin/rm bush-n.gph bush-n.ps bush-n.eps
graph bush  n, c(.) s([county]) sort saving(bush-n)
gphpen bush-n -dps -n
!gs -sDEVICE=epswrite -sOutputFile=bush-n.eps -dBATCH -dNOPAUSE bush-n.ps


*gore vs. n
*reg gore n
*predict hat3
*generate dev3 = gore - hat3
*generate pdev3 = dev3/hat3
*list county gore hat3 dev3 pdev3
list county gore
! /bin/rm gore-n.gph gore-n.ps gore-n.eps
graph gore  n, c(.) s([county]) sort saving(gore-n)
gphpen gore-n -dps -n
!gs -sDEVICE=epswrite -sOutputFile=gore-n.eps -dBATCH -dNOPAUSE gore-n.ps


gen lngore = ln(gore)
gen lnbuch = ln(buch)
gen lnshgore = ln(shgore)
gen lnshbuch = ln(shbuch)

*shimer reg 
reg lnshbuch shgore 

gen lnn = ln(n)

*my reg1
reg lnshbuch lnshgore


*my reg2
reg lnbuch shgore lnn
test lnn=1


sum buch
global tbuch = _result(18)
di $tbuch

sum n
global tn = _result(18)
di $tn

*this is mle for phi0
global phi0 = $tbuch/$tn
di $phi0

global pbbuch = 3407
global pbn = 431621

program define buch
*parse "`*'", parse(" ")

di "local macro is `1'"

	sum n
	local tn = _result(18)

	sum buch
	local tbuch = _result(18)

	local phi0 = `tbuch'/`tn'
	di "MLE for Phi_0 is:" _skip(8) `phi0'

	local pbn = 431621

	clear
	set obs `1'
	gen double prob = 0

  while `1' > 0 { /* looping */
	replace prob = Binomial(431621,`1',`phi0') if _n == `1'
	local 1 = `1' - 1
  }

*	di "Probability that Buchanan gets no more than `1' votes is" _newline _newline "`prob'"

end


buch 3407
gen votes = _n
!/bin/rm prob-buch.gph prob-buch.ps prob-buch.eps
graph prob  votes, c(.) saving(prob-buch) xlab ylab(0,0.1,0.25,0.5,0.75,1.0)
gphpen prob-buch -dps -n
!gs -sDEVICE=epswrite -sOutputFile=prob-buch.eps -dBATCH -dNOPAUSE prob-buch.ps

log close
exit